My 2025 Phillies Analysis & Predictions
Sadly, as a die-hard Philadelphia sports fan, I have witnessed the Phillies come short of playoff success in the 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons. Not to relish in the past, and bring back both good and bad memories, but we lost to the Astros in the World Series in ‘22, blew the Diamondbacks series in ‘23, and then lost to the Mets this past ‘24 season. The highs have been high and the lows have been incredibly low. Their window to win it ALL, whether you want to admit it or not, is coming to a close soon. Can they repeat their success again this year? Compete and win another division title in the tough NL East? Let alone make another magical postseason run?
Here’s my take on it all as we begin 2025.
“I want my fu**ing trophy back!” — John Middleton
Free Agency
Dave Dombrowski has been in a tough spot all offseason. Anything the Phillies did was going to feel like a disappointment compared to A) what they have done the past several offseasons, and B) what the rest of the National League contenders (Mets, Dodgers, Braves, Padres, Arizona, etc.) we’re going to do in order to better themselves as ball clubs and win ball games yet again.
For example, and to just name a few moves, so far this offseason:
Juan Soto signs his massive deal with the New York Mets. Clay Holmes lol also signed a 3-year, $38M deal with the Mets. Pete Alonso is still a FA and could even return to their lineup. Time will tell on this.
Blake Snell signs an early, and huge, deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Teoscar Hernandez and setup man Blake Treinen resigned with LA. Michael Conforto signs a FA deal with the WS champions. Tommy Edman, postseason baller-outer, also signed a big deal with the Dodgers. As of today Friday, January 3, 2025, Korean infielder, Hyeseong Kim, signs with the world champions. Who aren’t they going to sign at this rate?
Corbin Burnes signed a huge deal to go pitch in the desert for Arizona. Josh Naylor also signed with them after Christian Walker left on a huge off season contract with the Astros.
Cubs and MVP-caliber outfielder Kyle Tucker agreed to an offseason deal.
And lastly, on this brief tangent of offseasons in the NL, the Braves and Padres have both been quiet thus far. But that could all be subject to change here soon.
Budgets are pesky things nowadays for Philadelphia. So are opportunities and opportunity cost. A friendly reminder, a lot of money comes off the books after the 2025 season for the Phillies… (C JT Realmuto, RF Nick Castellanos, and DH Kyle Schwarber to name a few players).
The Phillies have added four players so far this offseason and plenty of questions still linger in the Philadelphia air for most people, the media and fans. Was it enough? Why no big trade? (Other than for Luzardo)… Well it turns out, $31.1 million doesn’t buy you a hell of a lot when you split it up between four players. If this was the extent of the Phillies’ spending this offseason, here is what it got them and where they currently stand:
Jordan Romano: closer
- A 31-year-old closer formerly with Toronto who had allowed 6 HRs with a 5.84 ERA in his last 24 2/3 innings before undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery in May 2024. Before that, he had been one of the best closers in baseball for several years. The Phillies, and Jordan Romano, are both hoping that he can return to the form he was once pitching at.
- For example, Romano was one of the best closers in the majors for three straight years, compiling 95 saves and a 2.37 ERA from 2021–2023 with the Blue Jays. We should not be ignoring his upside so long as he remains healthy.
Max Kepler: outfielder
- Another 31-year-old outfielder with a league average bat who only adds to the Phillies’ platoon imbalance. They’ve already said he’ll be playing the bulk of the games in LF in 2025. For a 1-year deal worth $10,000,000 he should be. His previous 10 years in the league have all been spent playing with the Minnesota Twins. I hope he can return to his 2019, 2021, and 2023 form.
Jesús Luzardo: starting pitcher
- Surprisingly to most and, right before Christmas, the Phillies made a trade with their NL East division rival Miami Marlins. The Phillies sent SS Starlyn Caba and OF Emaarion Boyd to the Marlins in exchange for starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo and (minor league) C Paul McIntosh in the deal.
- The Phillies had been looking to bolster their starting rotation and fifth spot for quite some time after it was awful in 2024. Luzardo could be their answer to this problem this season.
- His best season was 2023 for Miami when he made 32 starts, going 10–10 with a 3.58 ERA in 178 2/3 innings. He went 3–6 with a 5.00 ERA in 12 starts last season (66 2/3 innings) before missing several months with elbow and back issues the remainder of the year.
- Luzardo has two more years of team control before becoming a FA. He made $5.5 million last season but should get a raise for 2025, through arbitration. Time will tell after 2025, as Ranger Suárez will be a FA too.
Joe Ross: relief pitcher
- He is a 31-year-old middle reliever who has some potential upside. He pitched for Milwaukee last year and went 3–6 with a 3.77 ERA in 74 innings with 66 K’s. Prior to that he was with the Nationals for 6 years so the Phillies are very familiar with him to say the least.
- Someone’s going to have to eat some innings with Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez both leaving the bullpen in this years free agency. Ross? I’m intrigued to say the least. Especially since it’s only a 1-year deal for $4M. He was a revelation after moving to the bullpen. I hope he can continue to mold into what Caleb Cotham and the Phillies envision for him in their 2025 bullpen view and plans. Already having some innings under his belt with the Nationals and Brewers in the playoffs certainly helps. Phillies will be next as long as he stays healthy.
Phillies storylines to watch in 2025:
They haven’t made the splashy offseason moves like some other ball clubs have. I think I have clearly shown that. However, that doesn’t change the sky-high expectations for the Phillies this 2025 season. Allow me to explain:
- Transform and get Trea Turner back on track
- Trea Turner needs to solidify the no. 2 spot in the Phillies lineup this year behind Kyle Schwarber and ahead of Bryce Harper. *More on that and the Phillies lineup later on. His defensive efficiency needs to improve as well as cutting down on errors at SS. Cut down on his chase rate % at the plate will be key too.
2. Welcome Alec Bohm back with open arms
- It doesn’t appear that All-Star third baseman Alec Bohm is going anywhere and I’m totally fine with that. Their only “upgrade” would have been acquiring Alex Bregman from the Houston Astros but it doesn’t seem like that’s going to happen at all. A solid Bohm in the lineup, along with his improved play at 3B, could potentially continue to lean in the Phillies favor.
3. The Leadoff Man and other Clubhouse Leader: Kyle Schwarber
- Kyle Schwarber is an absolute dawg and certified clubhouse and lock room leader for the Philadelphia Phillies. There’s no disputing that. His 2024 campaign was arguably his best yet with the Phillies and I hope he’s able to build upon that in 2025. The Phillies will only go as far as Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper can take them. The Schwarbarian, Schwarbomb-er, and tone setter needs to be great once again.
4. The Andrew Painter effect
- Painter’s missed significant time with injuries (torn elbow ligament and then Tommy John surgery last year). His health is of upmost importance in 2025 and he is progressing in the right direction. So, with that being said, this summer we could possibly see the 21-year-old RHP starting for the first time ever in a Phillies uniform. He’d be the youngest pitcher to start a game for the Phillies since Zach Eflin in 2016. Adding him into the rotation, already with the addition of Luzardo, makes the Phillies arguably the best starting staff in MLB. I will die on that hill.
My Predictions:
I foresee the following starting 26-man roster once spring training ends and the regular season kicks off later this year. Obviously, this could all be subject to change. It’s just my $0.02 right now.
Offense (14):
C: JT Realmuto & Garrett Stubbs
1B: Bryce Harper & Kody Clemens
2B: Bryson Stott
SS: Trea Turner
3B: Alec Bohm & Edmundo Sosa
LF: Max Kepler & Weston Wilson
CF: Brandon Marsh & Johan Rojas
RF: Nick Castellanos
DH: Kyle Schwarber
Pitchers (12):
Starting Rotation:
RHP: Zack Wheeler
RHP: Aaron Nola
LHP: Cristopher Sánchez
LHP: Ranger Suárez
LHP: Jesus Luzardo
Relievers:
LHP: Tanner Banks
RHP: Orion Kerkering
LHP: Jose Alvarado
LHP: Matt Strahm
RHP: Jose Ruiz
RHP: Joe Ross
RHP: Jordan Romano
Starting Lineup:
DH Kyle Schwarber
SS Trea Turner
1B Bryce Harper
RF Nick Castellanos
2B Bryson Stott
3B Alec Bohm
LF Max Kepler
C JT Realmuto
CF Brandon Marsh
Lastly, here are some other bold predictions based on data, previous years numbers, and straight-up gut feelings…
Record: 96–66
NL East Rank: 1st and repeating as NL East champions *even though the competition between the Braves and lol Mets will be tough*
Playoff Outcome: Win the 2025 World Series or die trying
All-Stars (6): Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, Bryson Stott, Kyle Schwarber, Zack Wheeler & Cristopher Sánchez
Gold Gloves (3): Ranger Suárez (P), Bryson Stott (2B) & Bryce Harper (1B)
Cy Young Award (1): Either Zack Wheeler or Cristopher Sánchez brings home this award. Wheeler finished second last year to Chris Sale in voting. Sánchez is going to continue his domination in my eyes.
World Series MVP: Bryce Harper 🏆
Their time is now! Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more Phillies information as the year progresses.
My Very Best,
Donovan Vogel
